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Sonoran Escapes

Connie Clark, Broker/Owner
480-298-3635

Scottsdale Real Estate Market Update 2023

January 2023

From our Local Cromford Report…

Market Summary for the Beginning of January 2023

Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for January 1, 2023 compared with January 1, 2022 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 16,298 versus 5,776 last year – up 182% – but down 14.9% from 19,155 last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 5,456 versus 9,393 last year – down 41.9% – and down 14.1% from 6,352 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 5,132 versus 9,265 last year – down 44.6% – but up 4.1% from 4,931 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $265.58 versus $267.92 last year – down 0.9% – and down 2.5% from $272.30 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $410,000 versus $425,000 last year – down 3.5% – and down 2.4% from $420,000 last month

There are lots of small numbers in December’s totals. We have very low volumes of closings because both buyers and sellers are discouraged. Monthly sales are down almost 45% from this time last year, and listings under contract are down nearly 42%. The numbers confirm that demand is very weak compared to normal for the time of year, and even weaker compared to the strong demand 12 months ago. However weak demand does not necessarily make a market crash. Excess supply is what really drives prices down hard. This is what we saw in 2006 through 2008. But in 2023 supply is low and getting lower. It is much higher than this time last year, when it was abnormally low, but it is still a long way below normal.

Activity is very low across the board, but the market balance is normal. By that we mean we have equal balance between buyers and sellers. The trend is now moving in favor of sellers, having been favorable to buyers a month ago. So although there is gloom and despondency almost everywhere, amid the murk there are clear signs of improvement. Because sentiment is so poor, there is psychological pressure to lower prices. However there is no such downward pressure coming from the market. If all trading was done by unemotional computers, prices should be stabilizing right now.

In the real world, strongly influenced by human emotions, prices fell sharply last month, losing 3.5% in the monthly median and 2.5% based on the average price per square foot. However sales prices are a trailing indicator and these moves reflect the balance in the market in November, when we experienced a clear advantage for buyers. Leading indicators are looking more positive. This probably stems from interest rates being less horrible than they were six weeks ago. Demand is starting to stabilize and even showing a few signs of a slow recovery. With new supply very weak, we are not witnessing a market crash. This is merely a correction, with prices now just a tad lower than a year ago – the monthly average $/SF is down 0.9%.

We are still dependent on the whims of the Federal Reserve. If they continue to push the Federal Funds Rate higher in an attempt to curb inflation, then mortgage rates could move higher too, putting a quick damper on any recovery in demand. However if the 30 year fixed mortgage rate stays between 6% and 6.75%, then we should have confidence that the housing market can operate normally at this level. Prior to 2009, anything under 7% was considered a low interest rate and rates under 5% were unheard of.

To achieve confidence we need several months of interest rate stability. This is by no means certain to happen, but it is possible. Once the fear is removed, we should see more signs of a recovery in demand and volumes will rise back towards a more normal level.

New supply is still very low, but we will be watching closely for any change in this trend.

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$423,000
Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 3
Sqft: 1,584
MLS: #6508687
Launch Real Estate
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$869,000
Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2
Sqft: 2,431
MLS: #6513954
North & Co
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$335,000
Bedrooms: 2
Baths: 2
Sqft: 968
MLS: #6476282
RE/MAX Fine Properties
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$949,990
Bedrooms: 5
Baths: 3.5
Sqft: 2,274
MLS: #6534137
Gentry Real Estate
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$965,000
Bedrooms: 4
Baths: 2.5
Sqft: 2,887
MLS: #6474075
RE/MAX Fine Properties
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$425,000
Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2
Sqft: 1,411
MLS: #6508529
Real Broker AZ, LLC
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$347,900
Bedrooms: 2
Baths: 2
Sqft: 1,200
MLS: #6512572
Tru Realty
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$934,000
Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2
Sqft: 2,306
MLS: #6524782
HomeSmart
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$4,950,000
Bedrooms: 5
Baths: 7
Sqft: 5,742
MLS: #6513605
Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty
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$645,000
Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2
Sqft: 2,010
MLS: #6523455
Arizona Best Real Estate
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$374,000
Bedrooms: 2
Baths: 2
Sqft: 1,062
MLS: #6445328
Launch Real Estate
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$1,099,000
Bedrooms: 4
Baths: 2
Sqft: 1,993
MLS: #6510371
MCG Realty
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$525,000
Bedrooms: 2
Baths: 2.5
Sqft: 1,539
MLS: #6514761
Realty ONE Group
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$885,000
Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2
Sqft: 2,046
MLS: #6533677
Realty ONE Group
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$1,995,000
Bedrooms: 4
Baths: 2.5
Sqft: 2,554
MLS: #6530871
Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty
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Copyright 2023 Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. All rights reserved.

All information should be verified by the recipient and none is guaranteed as accurate by ARMLS.

IDX Solution Provided by iFoundAgent.com

ARMLS Listing Data last updated 3/21/2023 10:15 AM MST.
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Get in Touch

Connie Clark, Broker/Owner
Sonoran Escapes Homes & Lifestyles
6501 E. Greenway Parkway, Ste. 103 - 153
Scottsdale, AZ 85254
Direct: 480-298-3635
cac777@cox.net

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