October 2019
The latest real estate information in the Phoenix/Scottsdale metro area for October 2019 via our local Cromford Report:
The Cromford® Market Index stayed over 200 for the second month since 2005, but failed to rise further. The market remains hot and very unbalanced in favor of sellers but the situation did not get more extreme. This is largely due to seasonal factors. Between September and December we always see active listings grow each year. October in particular is a very popular month for creating a listing. However sales activity always declines steadily as the temperature cools, despite the influx of snowbirds, some of whom decide to buy somewhere, often in a spot more conducive to retirement or vacation rather than commuting.
In almost every year we have seen a move in favor of buyers during the period September to November, though the effect can be slight, moderate or significant. This year it looks to be slight, but it still exists.
Here are the basics – the ARMLS numbers for October 1, 2019 compared with October 1, 2018 for all areas & types:
- Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 13,755 versus 16,819 last year – down 18.2% – but up 1.1% from 13,609 last month
- Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 17,592 versus 20,303 last year – down 13.4% – but up 0.1% compared with 17,577 last month
- Pending Listings: 6,011 versus 5,195 last year – up 15.7% – but down 5.3% from 6,350 last month
- Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 9,848 versus 8,679 last year – up 13.5% – but down 4.6% from 10,318 last month
- Monthly Sales: 7,987 versus 7,067 last year – up 13.0% – but down 10.4% from 8,913 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $169.58 versus $161.31 last year – up 5.1% – and up 0.2% from $169.19 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $279,500 versus $260,000 last year – up 7.5% – but down 0.2% from $280,000 last month
We note that September 2019 contained 20 working days while September 2018 contained only 19. This gives September 2019 a 5.3% advantage. We should bear that in mind when looking at the large increases in monthly sales compared to September last year.
Compared with August 2019, September gave us
- a slight increase in active listings
- a noticeable drop in demand numbers (sales, pending, under contract)
- very little movement in sales pricing
- a large upward movement in for-sale pricing
- a large upward movement in under contract pricing
The first 3 of these are to be expected every year in September. The last 2 are not so common and are the first sign of the significant up-tick in pricing that inevitably follows a major move higher by the Cromford® Market Index. It would be surprising if we do not see a corresponding move higher by sales prices over the next several months. Please don’t say we didn’t warn you.
Mortgage interest rates have plummeted since January creating an unexpected jolt of affordability into the housing market. In most circumstances, greater affordability translates into strong demand. However, there are now significant signs of weakness in the US economy (and the rest of the world). International trade disputes have a history of hurting both sides quite badly. In the USA, the manufacturing and agriculture sectors are probably the most exposed to unwelcome trends. The Federal Reserve will often cut interest rates in a faltering economy and if they do, and if these cuts translate to even lower mortgage rates, we could see continuing jolts of affordability for the housing market. If we are to enter a recession, then the housing market will not be the leading cause like it was in 2008. In Central Arizona it should remain in pretty decent shape as long as the current employment trends hold reasonably steady. Unlike last time, the Greater Phoenix housing market looks well placed to weather a mild to moderate economic storm.
Search Below for All Homes for Sale in the Scottsdale Real Estate Market:
6018 E Old West Way, Scottsdale 85266, LA Buena Vida Estates
- $780,000
- Bedrooms: 5, Baths: 2.5
- Home size: 2,845
- Lot size: 9,986
- Year built: 2000
- MLS #: 5994598
6032 N 79th Street, Scottsdale 85250, Hallcraft Villas Scottsdale 2
- $259,500
- Bedrooms: 2, Baths: 1
- Home size: 792
- Lot size: 1,511
- Year built: 1974
- MLS #: 5994636
5963 E Night Glow Circle, Scottsdale 85266, Los Alisos
- $775,000
- Bedrooms: 4, Baths: 3.5
- Home size: 3,451
- Lot size: 13,757
- Year built: 2001
- MLS #: 5994289
3821 N 85th Place, Scottsdale 85251, Pointe Scottsdale
- $500,000
- Bedrooms: 3, Baths: 2
- Home size: 1,909
- Lot size: 7,014
- Year built: 1966
- MLS #: 5990069
7160 N Via De Amigos --, Scottsdale 85258, Villa Del Sol
- $525,000
- Bedrooms: 3, Baths: 2
- Home size: 2,007
- Lot size: 6,235
- Year built: 1984
- MLS #: 5992419
42180 N 97th Way, Scottsdale 85262, Desert Mountain SF 291
- $2,650,000
- Bedrooms: 5, Baths: 6.5
- Home size: 6,553
- Lot size: 250,244
- Year built: 2008
- MLS #: 5994627
14241 N 56th Place, Scottsdale 85254, 56TH Street & Acoma
- $549,900
- Bedrooms: 4, Baths: 2
- Home size: 1,812
- Lot size: 13,192
- Year built: 1989
- MLS #: 5994026
18905 N 101st Way, Scottsdale 85255, Silverleaf at DC Ranch
- $4,750,000
- Bedrooms: 6, Baths: 7
- Home size: 6,836
- Lot size: 26,963
- Year built: 2009
- MLS #: 5994622
8415 E San Benito Drive, Scottsdale 85258, EL Paseo Lot 1-141 TR A-Z
- $554,888
- Bedrooms: 2, Baths: 2
- Home size: 2,114
- Lot size: 10,798
- Year built: 1982
- MLS #: 5985686
11253 E White Feather Lane, Scottsdale 85262, Desert Diamond Estates
- $684,900
- Bedrooms: 4, Baths: 3
- Home size: 2,622
- Lot size: 26,234
- Year built: 2003
- MLS #: 5992207
35320 N 95th Street, Scottsdale 85262, Legend Trail Parcel F
- $530,000
- Bedrooms: 3, Baths: 2
- Home size: 2,167
- Lot size: 7,504
- Year built: 2001
- MLS #: 5991091
17216 N 60th Place, Scottsdale 85254, Maravilla Two
- $869,900
- Bedrooms: 6, Baths: 3
- Home size: 4,267
- Lot size: 18,182
- Year built: 1996
- MLS #: 5981517
9290 E Thompson Peak Parkway, Scottsdale 85255, DC Ranch
- $1,850,000
- Bedrooms: 4, Baths: 4
- Home size: 3,742
- Lot size: 15,313
- Year built: 1999
- MLS #: 5968431
7837 E Garfield Street, Scottsdale 85257, Mereway Manor Lots 200-217
- $379,900
- Bedrooms: 3, Baths: 2
- Home size: 1,682
- Lot size: 6,105
- Year built: 1970
- MLS #: 5976660
12230 N 79th Street, Scottsdale 85260, Buenavante
- $925,000
- Bedrooms: 5, Baths: 4
- Home size: 3,592
- Lot size: 38,422
- Year built: 1989
- MLS #: 5873928
All information should be verified by the recipient and none is guaranteed as accurate by ARMLS.
IDX Solution Provided by iFoundAgent.com
ARMLS Listing Data last updated 10/21/2019 1:38 PM MST.
480-298-3635